KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian corn could see a significant boost from new US tariffs, experts suggest. The country, a major global producer of corn, may gain an opportunity to replace American corn in international markets if retaliatory tariffs are imposed on US goods.
In April 2025, US President Donald Trump introduced a minimum 10% tariff on most imports, alongside higher tariffs on products from several nations, including China. These tariffs are expected to lead to retaliatory measures from affected countries, potentially increasing the cost of US goods and reducing demand for them in global markets.
Analysts have pointed out that such tariffs could open doors for alternative suppliers of corn, particularly Ukraine. According to ASAP Agri, a consulting firm, Ukrainian corn stands to benefit from this shift. With competitive prices, stable logistics, and strong trade relationships with both the European Union and Asian markets, Ukraine is well-positioned to fill the gap left by the US.
While Brazil is also expected to increase its exports of corn, its production cannot meet the full global demand. This opens the door for Ukraine to step in and capture a larger share of the market. Barva Invest, another consultancy, noted that Ukraine views the US more as a competitor than a trade partner in the grain and oilseed market. It is believed that retaliatory tariffs from the EU, Australia, and China could further strengthen Ukraine’s position in the market, allowing it to directly compete with the US in key sectors such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and other grains.
In 2023, Ukraine produced 32 million metric tons of corn, with 30 million tons exported during the 2023/24 season. It is expected that the country will export approximately 22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As export prices for corn remain favourable, Ukrainian farmers are likely to expand the acreage under corn cultivation in the coming season.
Additionally, Ukraine recorded a record soybean harvest of 6.2 million tons in 2024, with half of the crop expected to be exported. The forecast for the 2025 soybean harvest is between 5.8 and 6.2 million tons, depending on weather conditions in the coming months.
With these favourable market conditions, Ukrainian agriculture looks set to benefit from both the US tariffs and the country’s growing reputation as a reliable global supplier of key grains and oilseeds.
