Vladimir Putin’s full invasion of Ukraine was meant to be short and victorious. Yet, after more than three years, Russia remains stuck in a war that is bloody, expensive and destabilising. Increasingly, it is clear that Putin cannot stop the war — not because of strength, but because he has built a system that relies entirely on the war to survive.
Over 700,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed in Ukraine. Many are traumatised and untrained, and some return home with severe psychological damage. A disturbing number of them commit violent crimes, including murder and rape. To keep the frontlines full, the Kremlin has turned to prisons, recruiting approximately 170,000 convicts — many of them violent offenders. According to Mariana Katzarova, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Russia, many of these men are now committing new crimes against women and children back home. Ending the war risks unleashing tens of thousands of traumatised and brutalised men back into Russian society, a reality the Kremlin fears could spark chaos.
Russia’s economy now revolves around war. Defence spending is expected to reach nearly 30% of the national budget in 2025 — the highest since the fall of the Soviet Union. In total, nearly 40% of federal expenditures will go to military and security needs. That is around 11.1 trillion rubles (£94 billion), according to Bloomberg. Industries such as metallurgy and chemicals have been turned into tools of war. Some regional economies have been revived not through development or innovation but through arms production.
Although Russia’s GDP reportedly grew by 3.6% in 2023, this increase is artificial, driven solely by war spending, not by sustainable growth. The illusion of economic health conceals a fragile system propped up by bombs and bullets.
The war also serves as Putin’s shield. It mutes dissent and excuses repression. Poverty, censorship and assassinations are all justified with the phrase “we are at war.” Key opposition voices have been jailed, exiled or killed. Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent critic, died under suspicious circumstances in a remote Arctic prison. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner mercenary boss who challenged Putin, died in a suspicious plane crash. Other dissidents are either in prison or silenced.
The war distracts Russians from the failure of domestic policies. Healthcare is collapsing, infrastructure is crumbling, and Putin’s promises to replace old Soviet housing have been abandoned. Instead, construction has begun on new buildings in occupied, destroyed Ukrainian cities like Mariupol — a symbolic shift from caring for Russians to occupying Ukraine.
Putin also cannot afford peace politically. He launched this war with bold aims: to “denazify” Ukraine, overthrow its government, and halt NATO expansion. None of these goals have been met. Ukraine is more united and militarised than ever. Its army is among the most experienced in Europe. Ukrainian companies are now working with global defence firms like Saab and Rheinmetall, producing drones, weapons and military technology for Europe’s future security.
Ukraine has also experienced a cultural revival. Russian attempts to erase Ukrainian identity have only strengthened it. Ukrainian books, music, film and theatre are flourishing, fed by a wave of national pride and defiance. Every Russian missile strengthens Ukrainian unity.
Meanwhile, Russia is isolating itself. It is poorer, more authoritarian and globally reviled. The invasion triggered the exact opposite of Putin’s intentions. Instead of weakening NATO, he has enlarged it. Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance, turning Russia’s western frontier into a NATO stronghold. The European Union is now rearming, seeking military independence from the United States for the first time in decades. It is a strategic defeat for Russia.
Putin has built a system that depends on permanent war. To stop would be to invite collapse. His regime’s image, economy and authority are all propped up by the war in Ukraine. He cannot win, but he also cannot afford to lose. And because of that, the war continues — not for Russia’s future, but for Putin’s survival.
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