European officials believe that US President Donald Trump will soon face a major decision on Ukraine as Russian President Vladimir Putin demands the lifting of sanctions in return for a ceasefire. Negotiations in Saudi Arabia concluded on Tuesday without a clear resolution, as Moscow insisted on removing sanctions before agreeing to halt hostilities in the Black Sea. This has disrupted US efforts to secure a broader deal and challenged Trump’s promise to quickly end the war.
According to European officials, the Kremlin is deliberately stalling negotiations to extract concessions from the United States. By linking discussions on Ukraine with other geopolitical issues, such as relations with China and Iran, Trump has given Putin additional leverage. Officials warn that Trump will either have to increase pressure on Moscow or offer significant compromises to meet his self-imposed deadline for ending the war.
On Tuesday, Trump speculated that Russia might be deliberately prolonging the process. Although Washington announced a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea, the Kremlin responded by stating that it was conditional on easing sanctions against Russian banks and agricultural companies—terms the US has not publicly acknowledged. While the Trump administration has previously assured allies that sanctions will remain in place until the war ends, some level of sanction relief now seems inevitable as part of any settlement.
Analysts believe that by introducing these conditions, Russia aims to secure guaranteed benefits in future negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Moscow of exploiting Trump’s eagerness for a ceasefire by inserting demands that were never part of the original agreements.
Despite negotiations, there is still no active ceasefire on the battlefield. European officials confirm that details remain unresolved, and Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure continue. Ukrainian forces have reported at least eight energy sites hit since 18 March. Nightly drone strikes persist, forcing Ukraine to intercept them without knowing their exact targets.
The Kremlin has also tied its participation in the Black Sea agreement to further concessions, including lifting sanctions. On 18 March, Moscow declared a temporary suspension of energy strikes for 30 days, but experts warn that this could be a tactical pause rather than a genuine step towards de-escalation.
Russian political consultant Sergei Markov, known for his Kremlin ties, has openly stated that the entire Black Sea negotiation serves a hidden agenda—securing the gradual removal of US sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, there is little active military confrontation in the Black Sea itself, as Ukraine has forced Russia to relocate its fleet through repeated drone and missile attacks.
Bloomberg reports that Trump’s administration originally aimed for a full ceasefire by 20 April, but European officials are sceptical of this timeline, warning that finalising an agreement could take months.
Western intelligence sources suggest that both Russia and Ukraine currently see an unfavourable ceasefire as worse than continuing the war. Despite diplomatic efforts, Putin’s key demands remain unchanged: neutralising Ukraine’s military, consolidating Russian territorial control, and halting Western military support to Kyiv.
European officials hope that Trump will eventually realise Putin has no genuine interest in a lasting peace. However, Trump’s fixation on ending the war quickly makes his final decision unpredictable. He has repeatedly expressed a desire to stop both the fighting and US financial aid to Ukraine, saying: “I just want it to stop… I also don’t want to pay.”
Following the Saudi negotiations, Washington and Kyiv reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea. However, in a separate statement, Russia focused instead on securing its agricultural exports—a divergence that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sees as a weakening of sanctions enforcement.
Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov has warned that any Russian attempt to reposition warships in the eastern Black Sea would be considered a violation of agreements. Kyiv reserves the right to respond militarily if Russia threatens Ukraine’s security or freedom of navigation, he added.
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