Ukraine’s navy has confirmed plans for another strike on the Crimean Bridge, marking the third major attack on the key Russian supply route. Despite a pause in military aid from the United States, Ukraine has demonstrated that it can carry out such operations using domestically developed weapons and support from other Western allies. Even if Starlink communications were disabled, Ukrainian forces have alternative systems in place to ensure coordination.
Naval expert and Defence Express columnist Vladimir Zablotsky has stated that the destruction of the Kerch Bridge does not depend on US assistance. Ukraine has its own unmanned underwater systems designed for such missions. He criticised the idea that Ukraine needs to be guided by foreign intelligence, asserting that Ukrainian forces have already proven their capabilities.
Russian efforts to protect the bridge have so far failed. While Moscow has reinforced defences with air defence systems and naval barriers, previous Ukrainian strikes have inflicted serious damage. The second attack saw only two of the five Maluk drones reach the target, but even this limited strike was enough to damage the structure.
Ukraine has formed a specialised naval unit dedicated to drone warfare. This unit employs various types of surface and underwater drones, planning attacks that combine strikes from land, sea, and air. Such tactics create uncertainty for Russian forces, making defence difficult. Zablotsky emphasised that the element of surprise remains a crucial advantage for Ukraine.
Russia’s ability to respond effectively in the Black Sea is severely limited. Its fleet has suffered heavy losses from Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, and it lacks the resources for a more active naval campaign. According to Zablotsky, if the next US administration maintains a firm stance against the Kremlin, Russia’s military will be significantly weakened within a year to eighteen months. Although the current political situation in Washington may delay this outcome, he believes Russia’s defeat remains inevitable.
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